The upcoming week can be classified as very spring-like and above-average, which is quite fitting given the fact that this is the first full week of Meteorological Spring, which began March 1st. While the 5 day forecast above is for Hutchinson and surrounding areas, It is a good median for the remainder of the area as well. Eventually, I will roll these out for several cities across the region according to the where the majority of our viewers are located. This may take some time, however, as I am still working the kinks out of this new system.
The only precipitation in the forecast for the upcoming week is late tomorrow into Tuesday morning. This is when we will likely see showers break-out across the region as a storm and associated front pushes thru. Heavy rain is not likely as these will be relatively scattered. Widespread amounts ranging from just a trace to 0.10″ is most probable with locally higher amounts between 0.25″ – 0.50″ not out of the question. In addition, there will be enough moisture and instability that we could end up hearing a few rumbles of thunder with these showers, which is where we would see the heaviest rainfall totals.
Once this cold front pushes thru, we will see quite a dramatic downturn in temperatures. Tuesday will be the warmest day early in the week with highs potentially reaching the low 60s in some areas prior to the fronts arrival. This will be a fairly strong front with quickly falling temperatures on Tuesday as it pushes thru the region. The numbers you see for Wednesday may be a bit generous as some models keep temps only in the upper 30s and low 40s, which is still quite a bit above-average. This is something to watch, but for now, mid to upper 40s are a good bet.
By late in the week, I am expecting another strong surge of warm air to flood into the region. Currently, the official high temps range from the upper 50s in eastern and northern areas with upper 60s in the southwest. That said, I will be watching future model runs very closely for this time-frame as there is some hint that we could see temps much warmer than that, pushing record-levels, by Friday into Saturday. The European model has been especially gun-ho about this, showing widespread temps in the low 70s by Friday and Saturday. As of lately, it has had the tendency to run a bit “too hot”, so that could be the case again. On the other hand it is often the model that picks up on extreme trends before other models, so perhaps it may be onto something. Only time will tell.
Enjoy the beautiful, spring-like weather, friends! I am beginning to see evidence of a potentially significant cool-down by late next week, so while it may feel like spring has sprung, March tends to be a volatile month with occasional extreme swings in temps. Given that this winter was rather extreme, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Old Man Winter take one more shot at the region before spring finally arrives!