It would appear that the models overestimated the amount of warm air that wrapped into this storm as many locations have now fallen below zero and an ice storm is underway. My estimation is that some locations have already seen nearly a quarter of an inch of ice accrual on some surfaces, and roads may be getting slick. In addition to the rain, the thermal profiles are beginning to cool off as well, with the latest computer models trending in the direction of a bit more southerly track and less in the way of plain rain. Really, at this point, some areas may see just freezing rain and sleet before changing to snow.
I am done making adjustments with this storm and whatever happens, happens. However, I did make some adjustments based on the latest model trends one last time. The biggest change was to drag the snow accumulations further south, to follow in line more with the HRRR and NAM models. The last snowfall forecast for this storm is on the left, showing that I still expect the heaviest snow to be in central Minnesota. This is a bit further north from the HRRR model but pretty much on track with the NAM model.
It does look like a decent snowband will be ongoing in the morning over central areas, centered on an axis from Madison through Minneapolis. As the morning progresses, the entire area will see a changeover to snow, but little accumulation is expected from mid-morning on.
This has been a tough storm to forecast, and some minor fluctuations seem likely between now and the changeover to snow. However, at this point, I am worn out from staring at my monitor all day, and whatever happens, happens. I will have a recap on the storm once it is done. Stay safe if you must travel out in the storm and in the morning I will have an update on what happened overnight and begin looking at the rest of the week. Eric, out!